Forecasting space weather: Predicting interplanetary shocks using neural networks

We are developing a system to predict the arrival of interplanetary (IP) shocks at the Earth. These events are routinely detected by the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument aboard NASA’s ACE spacecraft, which is positioned at Lagrange Point 1 (L1). In this work, we use historical EPAM data to train an IP shock forecasting algorithm. Our approach centers on the observation that these shocks are often preceded by identifiable signatures in the energetic particle intensity data. Using EPAM data, we trained an artificial neural network to predict the time remaining until the shock arrival. After training this algorithm on 37 events, it was able to forecast the arrival time for 19 previously unseen events. The average uncertainty in the prediction 24 h in advance was 8.9 h, while the uncertainty improved to 4.6 h when the event was 12 h away. This system is accessible online, where it provides predictions of shock arrival times using real-time EPAM data.     

Geoeffectiveness of interplanetary shocks controlled by impact angles: A review

The high variability of the Sun’s magnetic field is responsible for the generation of perturbations that propagate throughout the heliosphere. Such disturbances often drive interplanetary shocks in front of their leading regions. Strong shocks transfer momentum and energy into the solar wind ahead of them which in turn enhance the solar wind interaction with magnetic fields in its way. Shocks then eventually strike the Earth’s magnetosphere and trigger a myriad of geomagnetic effects observed not only by spacecraft in space, but also by magnetometers on the ground. Recently, it has been revealed that shocks can show different geoeffectiveness depending closely on the angle of impact. Generally, frontal shocks are more geoeffective than inclined shocks, even if the former are comparatively weaker than the latter. This review is focused on results obtained from modeling and experimental efforts in the last 15?years. Some theoretical and observational background are also provided.